Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter
American Economic Review · 2025 · J. Carter Braxton、Kyle Herkenhoff、Jonathan Rothbaum、Lawrence Schmidt
中文摘要
谁的收入风险发生了变化，原因何在？我们通过结合卡尔曼滤波与 EM 算法，估计每个个体在每一时点的持久性收入和暂时性收入，以回答这些问题。我们将该方法应用于与调查数据相关联的行政收入数据。我们表明，自 1980 年代以来，就业者和失业者的持久性收入风险均上升了 12.5%，且失业的创伤效应翻了一番。与此同时，暂时性收入风险则下降了。利用教育和职业代码，我们表明，持久性收入风险的上升集中于高技能劳动者，并与技术采用有关。（JEL J22, J24, J31, J64）
Abstract
For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. We apply our method to administrative earnings linked with survey data. We show that since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5 percent for both employed and unemployed workers and the scarring effects of unemployment doubled. At the same time, temporary earnings risk declined. Using education and occupation codes, we show that rising persistent earnings risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption. (JEL J22, J24, J31, J64)