中文摘要
我们利用聚类回归方法, 基于2008年经济刺激支付估计边际消费倾向 (MPC) 的无条件分布。通过摒弃以可观测变量交互项估计MPC异质性的标准做法, 我们得以恢复MPC的完整分布。我们发现, 家庭在一个季度内将退税额的4%至133%用于消费, 且不同家庭将退税款用于不同的商品。尽管许多可观测特征单独看均与我们所估计的MPC相关, 但在联合检验中, 这些关系大多不复存在。显著的例外是收入和平均消费倾向, 二者与MPC正相关。家庭可观测特征仅能解释MPC变异的8%, 这凸显了潜在异质性的作用。
Abstract
Abstract We estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using clustering regression applied to the 2008 economic stimulus payments. By deviating from the standard approach of estimating MPC heterogeneity using interactions with observables, we can recover the full distribution of MPCs. We find households spent between 4 and 133% of the rebate within a quarter, and individual households used rebates for different goods. While many observable characteristics correlate individually with our estimated MPCs, most of these relationships disappear when tested jointly. Notable exceptions are income and the average propensity to consume, which correlate positively with the MPC. Household observable characteristics explain only 8% of MPC variation, highlighting the role of latent heterogeneity.