中文摘要
我们构建了一个新颖的欧洲君主统治期层面数据集，涵盖10世纪至18世纪欧洲所有主要国家。我们首先记录到统治者的认知能力与国家绩效之间存在较强的正相关关系。为处理内生性问题，我们利用了以下事实：(i) 统治者依照世袭继承制产生，与其能力无关；(ii) 欧洲统治王朝中普遍存在的近亲通婚，历经数百年造成了统治者能力的准随机变异。我们对统治者父母之间的血缘关系程度进行编码，该指标也反映了前几代近亲通婚的“隐性”层次。近亲通婚系数能够有力地预测统治者能力，相应的工具变量结果表明，统治者能力对国家及其疆域的绩效具有相当大的影响。这支持了“领导者创造历史”的观点，即统治者塑造了欧洲版图，直至其整合为民族国家。我们还表明，只有在权力基本不受约束的情况下，统治者才会产生影响。在议会制衡君主权力的统治期内，统治者能力不再影响其国家绩效。
Abstract
We create a novel reign‐level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state's performance.