历史的主宰：欧洲君主对国家绩效的影响

Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Sebastian Ottinger", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economics Institute", "University of California, Los Angeles"]}, {"name": "Nico Voigtländer", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of California, Los Angeles", "Centre for Economic Policy Research"]}]

中文摘要

我们构建了一个新的欧洲君主统治期层面数据集，涵盖10世纪至18世纪间所有主要欧洲国家。我们首先记录了统治者认知能力与国家绩效之间存在的强烈正相关关系。为解决内生性问题，我们利用了以下事实：(i) 统治者依世袭继承制任命，与其能力无关；(ii) 欧洲统治王朝间普遍存在的近亲繁殖，在数百年间导致统治者能力出现准随机变异。我们编码了统治者父母之间的血缘关系程度，该指标同时反映了源自前几代的“隐性”近亲繁殖层次。近交系数是统治者能力的有力预测指标，相应的工具变量结果表明，统治者能力对国家及其疆域的表现产生了相当大的影响。这支持了“领导者创造历史”的观点，即统治者的能力塑造了欧洲版图，直至其最终整合为民族国家。我们还发现，只有在统治者权力基本不受约束的情况下，统治者才真正发挥作用；在议会对君主权力形成制衡的统治期内，统治者能力不再影响其国家的表现。

Abstract

We create a novel reign‐level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers, which also reflects “hidden” layers of inbreeding from previous generations. The coefficient of inbreeding is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable effect on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that “leaders made history,” shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state's performance.