针对自然灾害的强制性适应与自愿性适应：以美国野火为例
Mandated versus Voluntary Adaptation to Natural Disasters: The Case of US Wildfires
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · [{"name": "Patrick Baylis", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Judson Boomhower", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
尽管气候相关灾害造成的损失不断攀升，保护性技术与行为的采用仍因风险误判、外部性及保险市场摩擦而受限。应对这些市场失灵的一种方式是强制要求此类投资。我们利用2000年以来暴露于野火的美国住房的综合数据，测算了加利福尼亚州野火建筑规范对自身及邻近建筑存续的影响。不同辖区与建造年代之间的差异揭示了建筑规范显著的韧性效应；规范还通过减少建筑间蔓延，提高了邻近住房的存续率。随后，我们构建并估计了一个模型，用以评估强制性建筑标准相对于其他适应性政策的社会效益。
Abstract
Despite escalating losses in climate-related disasters, adoption of protective technologies and behaviors is limited by risk misperception, externalities, and insurance market frictions. One response to these market failures is to mandate these investments. We measure the effect of California’s wildfire building codes on own and neighboring structure survival using comprehensive data on US homes exposed to wildfires since 2000. Differences across jurisdictions and vintages reveal remarkable resilience effects of building codes. Codes also increase survival of neighboring homes by reducing structure-to-structure spread. We then develop and estimate a model of social benefits of mandatory building standards versus other adaptation policies.