Management Science · 2026 · Alexander Bick、Adam Blandin、David J. Deming
中文摘要
生成式人工智能 (genAI) 是一种可能十分重要的新技术,但其对经济的影响取决于采用的速度和强度。本文报告了一系列具有全国代表性的美国调查的结果,这些调查涉及 genAI 在工作和家庭中的使用情况。截至 2024 年末,美国 18–64 岁人口中有 45% 使用 genAI。在就业受访者中,27% 在此前一周内至少有一次为工作目的使用过 genAI:其中 10% 每个工作日都使用,17% 在部分(而非全部)工作日使用。以各技术首款大众市场产品的发布时间为基准,genAI 在工作中的采用速度快于个人电脑 (PC),而其总体采用速度超出个人电脑和互联网的幅度更大。目前 genAI 辅助的工作时长占总工作时长的 1%–7%,受访者报告节省的时间相当于总工作时长的 1.4%。潜在的生产率提升因行业不同而差异巨大,而企业氛围与政策在采用模式中发挥着重要作用。本文经商业战略领域编辑 Alfonso Gambardella 录用。资金资助:本研究得到沃尔玛基金会 [资助号 252882] 的支持。补充材料:在线附录和数据文件可在 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2025.02523 获取。
Abstract
Generative artificial intelligence (genAI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from a series of nationally representative U.S. surveys of genAI use at work and at home. As of late 2024, 45% of the U.S. population age 18–64 uses genAI. Among employed respondents, 27% used genAI for work at least once in the previous week: 10% used it every workday and 17% on some but not all workdays. Relative to each technology’s first mass-market product launch, work adoption of genAI has been faster than the personal computer (PC), and overall adoption has outpaced both PCs and the internet by an even wider margin. Between 1% and 7% of all work hours are currently assisted by genAI, and respondents report time savings equivalent to 1.4% of total work hours. Potential productivity gains vary widely by industry, and firm climate and policies play an important role in adoption patterns. This paper was accepted by Alfonso Gambardella, business strategy. Funding: This work was supported by the Walmart Foundation [Grant 252882]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2025.02523 .