制造业革命：韩国的产业政策与工业化
Manufacturing Revolutions: Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Nathaniel Lane", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "University of Oxford"]}]
中文摘要
我通过考察东亚奇迹期间的一个重要插曲——韩国1973—1979年的重化工业（HCI）推进计划——研究产业政策对产业发展的影响。基于新整理的数据，我利用产业政策的引入和终止，研究其在干预期间及干预结束后的效应。我揭示，HCI政策促进了直接目标产业的扩张及其动态比较优势。利用通过投入产出网络形成的政策暴露差异，我证明该政策间接惠及了目标中间品的下游使用者。HCI政策的收益即使在政策结束后依然持续，且部分结果需要一段时间才逐渐显现。研究发现表明，这一临时性的推进计划推动韩国制造业进入了更先进的市场，并支持了持久的变化。本研究有助于厘清从东亚增长奇迹中汲取的经验教训。
Abstract
Abstract I study the effect of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea’s heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973–1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their effects during and after the intervention period. I reveal that HCI policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I demonstrate that the policy indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. The benefits of HCI persisted even after the policy ended, and some results took time to materialize. The findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and supported durable change. This study helps clarify the lessons drawn from the East Asian growth miracle.