Management Science · 2026 · Kyogo Kanazawa、Daiji Kawaguchi、Hitoshi Shigeoka、Yasutora Watanabe
中文摘要
我们以出租车司机为背景考察人工智能（AI）对生产率的影响。我们所研究的AI通过建议需求预计较高的路线来帮助司机寻找乘客。我们发现，AI通过缩短巡游时间提高了司机的生产率，且这一收益仅归于低技能司机，使高技能与低技能司机之间的生产率差距缩小了13.4%。本案例研究提供了AI与技能确实互为替代的证据，为近期关于AI导致岗位替代的预测研究所依据的潜在假设提供了直接支持。本文由商业战略领域编辑Joshua Gans接受。资助：本研究得到日本学术振兴会科研费（KAKENHI）[资助号23K25495、23H00828、22H00847、22H05009和22H00057]、JST RISTEX[资助号JPMJRX18H3]以及JST ERATO[资助号JPMJER2301]的资助。补充材料：在线附录和数据文件可在 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01631 获取。
Abstract
We examine the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity in the context of taxi drivers. The AI we study assists drivers with finding customers by suggesting routes along which the demand is predicted to be high. We find that AI improves drivers’ productivity by shortening the cruising time, and this gain is accrued only to low-skilled drivers, narrowing the productivity gap between high- and low-skilled drivers by 13.4%. This case study provides evidence that AI and skill are indeed substitutes, offering direct support for the underlying assumption of recent projection exercises regarding job displacement by AI. This paper was accepted by Joshua Gans, business strategy. Funding: This work was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI [Grants 23K25495, 23H00828, 22H00847, 22H05009, and 22H00057], JST RISTEX [Grant JPMJRX18H3], and JST ERATO [Grant JPMJER2301]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01631 .