生命与生计：大衰退对死亡率和福利的影响

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Amy Finkelstein", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology"]}, {"name": "Matthew Notowidigdo", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Frank Schilbach", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology"]}, {"name": "Jonathan Zhang", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]

中文摘要

我们利用美国各地区大衰退严重程度的空间差异，考察其对死亡率的影响，并探讨其量化含义。我们估计，与大衰退幅度相当的失业率上升会使平均年度年龄调整死亡率降低2.3%，且该效应至少持续10年。死亡率下降出现在各类死因中，并集中于受教育程度为高中及以下的人口。我们估计所有年龄段的死亡率百分比降幅相近，因此老年人死亡率下降约占总死亡率下降的四分之三。衰退引致的死亡率下降主要由总量经济活动减少对死亡率的外部效应驱动，而空气污染减少似乎是一个在数量上重要的机制。将我们关于死亡率顺周期性的估计纳入标准宏观经济框架后，衰退的福利成本显著降低，尤其是对受教育程度较低者和老年人而言。

Abstract

We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great Recession across the United States to examine its impact on mortality and explore the quantitative implications. We estimate that an increase in the unemployment rate of the magnitude of the Great Recession reduces the average annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3%, with effects persisting for at least 10 years. Mortality reductions appear across causes of death and are concentrated in the half of the population with a high school degree or less. We estimate similar percentage reductions in mortality at all ages, with declines in elderly mortality thus responsible for about three-quarters of the total mortality reduction. Recession-induced mortality declines are driven primarily by external effects of reduced aggregate economic activity on mortality, and reduced air pollution appears to be a quantitatively important mechanism. Incorporating our estimates of procyclical mortality into a standard macroeconomic framework substantially reduces the welfare costs of recessions, particularly for people with less education, and at older ages.