Polluting Public Funds: The Effect of Environmental Regulations on Municipal Bonds
Management Science · 2026 · Akshaya Jha、Stephen A. Karolyi、Nicholas Z. Muller
中文摘要
本文呈现了两项关于环境政策不确定性如何影响市政债券收益率的发现。第一，在新污染标准被提出后，收益率上升，但在该标准最终确定后，收益率下降。第二，在年度合规状况公告发布后，保持合规的县的收益率下降，而新近不合规的县的收益率上升。我们提供了提示性证据，将市政债券市场的这些短期反应与污染和房价的长期变化联系起来。我们的发现表明，监管严格程度的提高或未来环境政策不确定性的上升，都会提高为学校、医院和关键基础设施融资而发行的市政债务的成本。本文由金融领域编辑Tomasz Piskorski接受。补充材料：在线附录和数据文件可在 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02340 获取。
Abstract
We present two findings on how environmental policy uncertainty impacts municipal bond returns. First, yields increase after a new pollution standard is proposed but decrease after this standard is finalized. Second, after annual announcements of compliance status, yields fall for counties that remain in compliance but increase for newly noncompliant counties. We present suggestive evidence linking these short-run municipal bond market reactions to long-run changes in pollution and housing prices. Our findings suggest that increases in either regulatory stringency or uncertainty over future environmental policy increase the cost of municipal debt raised to fund schools, hospitals, and critical infrastructure. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02340 .