教育、技术与最低工资之间的竞赛
The Race Between Education, Technology, and the Minimum Wage
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Jonathan Vogel", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 实际最低工资对工资和不平等有何影响？我发展了一个嵌套教育与技术赛跑的理论。该理论预测，最低工资变化的影响起初较小，但会随时间推移而增大。我提供了这些动态效应的经验证据：实际工资的弹性在三年期间内大幅增长。我表明，最低工资有助于解释20世纪80年代低教育工人实际工资的大幅下降，并在塑造美国大学溢价演变的过程中发挥作用。
Abstract
ABSTRACT What is the effect of the real minimum wage on wages and inequality? I develop a theory that nests the race between education and technology. The theory predicts that the effect of changes in minimum wages is initially small but grows over time. I present empirical evidence of these dynamic effects: the elasticity of real wages grows substantially over a three-year period. I show that minimum wages help rationalize a considerable decline in real wages of low-education workers in the 1980s and play a role in shaping the evolution of the U.S. college premium.