巴西亚马逊的高效保护：来自动态模型的估计
Efficient Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon: Estimates from a Dynamic Model
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "R. Nazaré O. de Araújo", "affiliation": ["Fundação de Apoio à Universidade Federal de São Paulo"]}, {"name": "Francisco Costa", "affiliation": ["Faculdades Guarulhos"]}, {"name": "Marcelo Castello Branco Sant'Anna", "affiliation": ["Faculdades Guarulhos"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文估计巴西亚马逊地区的碳效率森林覆盖率——即当农场主将碳的社会成本内部化时的森林覆盖率。我们提出一个动态离散选择土地利用模型，并利用 2008 年至 2017 年间 57 亿个像素的土地利用和碳储量面板数据对其进行估计。照常经营情景意味着长期内将低效释放 420 亿吨二氧化碳，这是由相当于法国两倍面积的森林砍伐造成的。使农场主将碳的社会成本内部化的碳税将实现有效配置，并产生超过 1.6 万亿美元的福利收益。对碳税的响应呈高度凸性：仅需 10 美元/吨的碳税即可保留 95% 的有效碳储量。作为次优政策的养牛业消费税，最多只能实现最优福利收益的 87%。
Abstract
Abstract This paper estimates the Brazilian Amazon’s carbon-efficient forest cover—i.e. when farmers internalize the social cost of carbon. We propose a dynamic discrete choice land-use model and estimate it using a panel of land use and carbon stock of 5.7 billion pixels between 2008 and 2017. The business-as-usual scenario implies an inefficient release of 42 billion tons of CO2 in the long run, resulting from the deforestation of an area twice the size of France. A carbon tax that makes farmers internalize the social cost of carbon would implement the efficient allocation and generate welfare gains exceeding 1.6 trillion dollars. Responses from a carbon tax are highly convex: a carbon tax of only $10/ton would preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock. An excise tax on cattle ranching, a second-best policy, achieves at most 87% of the first-best welfare gains.