健康不平等对终身收入不平等有多重要？
How Important Is Health Inequality for Lifetime Earnings Inequality?
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Roozbeh Hosseini", "affiliation": ["University of Georgia", "University of Atlanta"]}, {"name": "Karen Kopecky", "affiliation": ["Emory University"]}, {"name": "Kai Zhao", "affiliation": ["University of Connecticut"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：使用动态面板方法，我们提供了负向健康冲击显著降低收入的经验证据。该效应主要由参与边际驱动，并集中于受教育程度较低者和健康状况较差者。接着，我们构建了一个劳动供给生命周期模型，其中包含风险性且异质的虚弱程度（frailty）状态，这些状态影响个体的生产率、获得社会保险的可能性、工作带来的负效用、死亡率和医疗支出。个体可以选择工作或不工作，并申请社会保障残疾保险（SSDI/SSI）。在我们的模型中，消除健康不平等会使55岁时对数终身（累积）收入的方差降低28%。这一效应中约60%源于健康状况不佳对获得SSDI/SSI福利概率的影响。尽管如此，我们表明，取消SSDI/SSI项目会降低事前福利。
Abstract
Abstract Using a dynamic panel approach, we provide empirical evidence that negative health shocks significantly reduce earnings. The effect is primarily driven by the participation margin and is concentrated among the less educated and those in poor health. Next, we develop a life-cycle model of labour supply featuring risky and heterogeneous frailty profiles that affect individuals’ productivity, likelihood of access to social insurance, disutility from work, mortality, and medical expenses. Individuals can either work or not work and apply for social security disability insurance (SSDI/SSI). Eliminating health inequality in our model reduces the variance of log lifetime (accumulated) earnings by 28% at age 55. About 60% of this effect is due to the impact of poor health on the probability of obtaining SSDI/SSI benefits. Despite this, we show that eliminating the SSDI/SSI program reduces ex ante welfare.