失业保险改革与劳动力市场动态
Unemployment Insurance Reforms and Labour Market Dynamics
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Benjamin Hartung", "affiliation": ["European Central Bank"]}, {"name": "Philip Jung", "affiliation": ["TU Dortmund University"]}, {"name": "Moritz Kuhn", "affiliation": ["University of Mannheim"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 劳动力市场研究中的一个关键问题是失业保险制度如何影响失业率和劳动力市场动态。我们通过研究近几十年来规模最大的失业保险改革之一——德国哈茨改革，为这一老问题提供了新的答案。平均而言，进入失业状态的分离率下降解释了改革后失业率下降的 76%，这一事实无法由现有聚焦于求职率的研究所解释。利用按年龄、就业持续时间和工资划分的制度变化，我们确立了改革与劳动力市场动态变化之间的因果联系。依托劳动力市场理论，我们将实证发现推广至德国案例之外，确立了分离率变化是失业保险改革后一个重要的宏观经济调整渠道。我们从解析上推导出，分离率的变化随平均失业持续时间成比例增加，这表明该渠道在大多数其他欧洲劳动力市场中同样具有重要作用。
Abstract
Abstract A key question in labour market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labour market dynamics. We provide new answers to this old question by studying one of the largest unemployment insurance reforms in recent decades, the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates into unemployment account for 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focussing on job-finding rates. Exploiting institutional changes by age, employment duration, and wages, we establish a causal link between the reform and changes in labour market dynamics. Relying on the labour market theory, we generalize our empirical findings beyond the German case and establish separation rate changes as an important macroeconomic adjustment channel after unemployment insurance reforms. We derive analytically that the change of separation rates increases in proportion to average unemployment duration suggesting an equally important role for most other European labour markets.