全球价值链与贸易政策
Global Value Chains and Trade Policy
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Emily J. Blanchard", "affiliation": ["Dartmouth College", "Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Chad P. Bown", "affiliation": ["Peterson Institute for International Economics"]}, {"name": "Robert C. Johnson", "affiliation": ["University of Notre Dame"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 全球价值链（GVC）联系如何改变各国实施进口保护的激励？这些联系在实践中是否是贸易政策的重要决定因素？我们提出一种对含 GVC 的关税设定进行建模的新方法，其中最优政策取决于嵌入本国和外国最终产品中增加值内容的国籍。理论预测，自由裁量关税将随外国生产的最终产品中本国内容的增加、以及本国生产的最终产品中外国内容的增加而下降。利用 1995 年至 2015 年间 14 个国家的数据，我们表明，在 GVC 联系最强的地方，政府设定更低的关税，并限制对临时性贸易壁垒的使用，这与理论预测一致。转向定量模型的反事实分析，我们发现，切断 GVC 联系将导致关税优惠消失。此外，旨在使中国与 GVC 脱钩的定向政策，将提高七国集团（G7）国家对中国出口设定的最优关税。
Abstract
Abstract How do global value chain (GVC) linkages modify countries’ incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages important determinants of trade policy in practice? We develop a new approach to modelling tariff setting with GVCs, in which optimal policy depends on the nationality of value-added content embedded in home and foreign final goods. Theory predicts that discretionary tariffs will be decreasing in the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods and the foreign content of domestically produced final goods. Using data for 14 countries between 1995 and 2015, we show that governments set lower tariffs and curb their use of temporary trade barriers where GVC linkages are strongest, consistent with theory. Turning to quantitative model counterfactuals, we find that severing GVC linkages would lead to the disappearance of tariff preferences. Further, targeted policies to decouple China from GVCs would increase the optimal tariff set by G7 countries on Chinese exports.