“坏”石油、“更糟”石油与碳错配
“Bad” Oil, “Worse” Oil, and Carbon Misallocation
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Renaud Coulomb", "affiliation": ["Université Paris Sciences et Lettres", "École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris"]}, {"name": "Fanny Henriet", "affiliation": ["Aix-Marseille Université"]}, {"name": "Léo Reitzmann", "affiliation": ["École Pratique des Hautes Études", "École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique", "Paris School of Economics"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 并非每一桶原油都生而平等：其开采在私人成本和碳强度上均存在差异。利用一套关于全球油田的全面微观数据集，以及碳强度和私人开采成本的详细估计，本研究量化了开采“错误”矿藏所产生的额外排放和成本。我们的方法是将矿藏层面的历史供给与纳入污染成本的反事实情形进行比较，同时保持年度全球消费量不变。1992年至2018年间，碳错配至少达到11.00十亿吨二氧化碳当量（GtCO2eq），造成的环境成本按2018年美元计价评估为2.2万亿美元。这意味着高碳石油主要生产国背负着显著的供给侧生态债务。展望未来，沿着与2050年净零排放目标相一致的未来总需求路径，我们估计使矿藏层面的开采达到社会最优可带来约9.30 GtCO2eq的收益，价值1.9万亿美元，并记录了各产油国之间储量搁浅程度的不均等。
Abstract
Abstract Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the “wrong” deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged. Between 1992 and 2018, carbon misallocation amounted to at least 11.00 gigatons of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2eq), incurring an environmental cost evaluated at $2.2 trillion (US$ 2018). This translates into a significant supply-side ecological debt for major producers of high-carbon oil. Looking forward, we estimate the gains from making deposit-level extraction socially optimal at about 9.30 GtCO2eq, valued at $1.9 trillion, along a future aggregate demand pathway coherent with the objective of net-zero emissions in 2050, and document unequal reserve stranding across oil nations.