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教育竞争与生育意愿:来自中国校外培训禁令的证据

Education Competition and Fertility Intention: Evidence from China’s Private Tutoring Ban
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Juanjuan Meng、Hui Wang、Yu (Alan) Yang、Mingshan Zhang

中文摘要

低生育率是许多国家面临的重大挑战。本文通过分析中国2021年的校外培训禁令,研究限制竞争驱动的校外培训能否提升生育意愿。利用全国性调查,我们获取了受访者在实施与不实施该政策两种情景下的生育意愿。该培训禁令使预期总和生育率显著提高7%–8%,且在政策强度更大的城市中效应更大。分解分析表明,首要驱动因素是感知到的教育竞争减轻,其次是父母健康状况与亲子关系的改善,以及时间和货币成本的降低。我们还在政策实施三年后的实际出生率上发现了一致的结果。

Abstract

Abstract Low fertility presents a major challenge for many nations. We study whether restricting competition-driven private tutoring can enhance fertility intentions by analysing China’s 2021 private tutoring ban. Using nationwide surveys, we elicit respondents’ fertility intentions under scenarios with and without the policy. The tutoring ban significantly increases expected total fertility by 7%–8%, with larger effects in cities under greater policy intensity. Decomposition reveals that the primary driver is perceived reduction in educational competition, followed by improved parental health, parent-child relationships, and reduced time and monetary costs. We also find consistent results on actual birth rates three years after the policy.
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