中文摘要
欧盟已踏上实现气候中和的雄心之路。这一转型对全体民众以及不同消费者群体而言将有多困难？本文运用一个动态一般均衡模型研究这一问题，该模型刻画了能源消费的一个关键特征：一个人的消费篮子中的相对能源含量随其相对收入而显著下降。因此，低收入消费者预计将因我们预期未来数十年能源价格上涨而受到更大冲击。在模型中，能源——资本与劳动的互补投入——既可利用化石燃料生产，也可采用“绿色”技术生产。我们将欧盟政策表示为对化石燃料征税，并表明欧盟委员会的“Fit-for-55”一揽子方案意味着对化石基技术征收106.4%的税。该税收带来的产出损失相当可观，在新稳态下GDP降低6.3%。负担主要落在最低收入主体身上，该主体代表第一个收入五分位，其境况比代表第五个五分位的最高收入主体恶化47%。如果经济如“Fit-for-55”一揽子方案所设想的那样实现能源效率的同步提升，产出损失几乎可以减半。
Abstract
Abstract The EU has embarked on an ambitious path towards climate neutrality. How difficult will this transition be for the population as a whole and for different subsets of consumers? This paper investigates this question using a dynamic general-equilibrium model that captures a key feature of energy consumption: the relative energy content of one’s consumption basket falls significantly as a function of one’s relative income. Thus, low-income consumers are expected to be hit harder by the higher energy prices that we anticipate over the next few decades. In the model, energy—a complementary input to capital and labour—can be produced either using fossil fuel or a ‘green’ technology. We represent the EU policy in terms of a tax on fossil fuel and show that the European Commission’s Fit-for-55 package implies a 106.4% tax on the fossil-based technology. The output losses from this tax are substantial, and GDP is 6.3% lower in the new steady state. The burden falls primarily on the lowest-income agent, who represents the first income quintile and is 47% more worse off than the highest-income agent, representing the fifth quintile. The output losses can almost be cut in half if the economy achieves a simultaneous increase in energy efficiency, as outlined in the Fit-for-55 package.