American Economic Review · 2026 · Verónica Bäcker-Peral、Jonathon Hazell、Atif Mian
中文摘要
每月都有一部分英国房产租约被延长90年及以上。我们利用2000年以来数千例此类自然实验构建了一个新数据集，并估计了预期长期住房收益率 y*。y* 在维持在约5%的平稳水平后，于大衰退来临时开始下降，并在2024年降至2.7%的低点。该下降在缺乏弹性的市场中更为陡峭，而在长期气候风险暴露更高的地区，y* 仍保持较高水平。我们对 y* 的估计利用公开数据实时更新。（JEL E32, G12, Q54, R31, R38）
Abstract
Each month, a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more. We construct a new dataset using thousands of these natural experiments since 2000 and estimate the expected long-term housing yield, y * . After remaining steady at around 5 percent, y * starts to decline when the Great Recession hits and reaches a low of 2.7 percent in 2024. The decline is steeper in inelastic markets, while y * remains higher in regions more exposed to long-run climate risk. Our estimate of y * is updated in real time using public data. (JEL E32, G12, Q54, R31, R38)