中文摘要
本文提供了直接证据,表明共同服刑能够促进出狱后犯罪伙伴关系的形成。我们利用将监禁时段与警方案件标识符相链接的挪威行政数据,通过后续共同犯罪来衡量网络联系。我们利用监禁机构内部接触时间上的变异,比较同一监禁机构中仅在服刑时段是否重叠上存在差异的囚犯配对。相对于可比的非重叠配对,服刑时段重叠与五年内共同犯罪增加37%相关,且该结果对大量控制变量和基于时间安排的限制具有稳健性。在互动可能更为密切的环境中和配对中,效应更强,凸显了网络形成是一个可能/合理的机制。
Abstract
This paper provides direct evidence that shared incarceration can facilitate the formation of post-release criminal partnerships. Using Norwegian administrative data linking prison spells to police case identifiers, we measure network ties through subsequent co-offending. We exploit time-based variation in exposure within facilities by comparing inmate pairs in the same facility who differ only in whether their spells overlapped. Overlap is associated with a 37% increase in five-year co-offending relative to comparable non-overlapping pairs, robust to extensive controls and timing-based restrictions. Effects are stronger in environments and for pairs where interaction is plausibly more intense, highlighting network formation as a plausible mechanism.