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“人才回流”:税收激励、移民与科研生产力

‘Returning brains’: Tax incentives, migration, and scientific productivity
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Pier Paolo Creanza

中文摘要

本文研究针对高技能移民的税收激励如何影响生产力。我收集了2000年至2020年间覆盖意大利90%高校教研人员的数据,并据此评估2004年一项为研究人员提供应税收入临时减免90%的税收优惠政策。第一,证据与该政策吸引了大量回流移民以及对受益者的正向选择相一致。第二,在进行了符合条件的聘用的群体中,我发现证据与更高生产力的受聘者显著提升其学术群体平均生产力相一致,这一提升大致在其直接贡献与本地教研人员的间接反应之间平分。第三,这一间接效应在很大程度上可由更高生产力的本地研究人员分选进入处理组来解释,而非由对在职研究人员的生产力溢出效应所致。基于完全正匹配的工具变量策略印证了主要发现。

Abstract

This paper investigates how tax incentives for high-skill immigrants affect productivity. I collect data covering 90 percent of Italian faculty between 2000 and 2020 and use it to evaluate a 2004 tax break offering a temporary 90 percent reduction in taxable income for researchers. First, the evidence is consistent with the program attracting substantial return migration and positive selection of beneficiaries. Second, among groups that make an eligible hire, I find evidence consistent with higher-productivity hires significantly increasing their academic group’s average productivity, roughly split between their direct contribution and indirect responses of local faculty. Third, this indirect effect is largely explained by higher-productivity local researchers sorting into the treated group, rather than by productivity spillovers on incumbent researchers. An instrumental variable strategy based on perfect assortative matching corroborates the main findings.
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