Prosecutor politics: The impact of election cycles on criminal sentencing in the era of rising incarceration
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Chika O. Okafor
中文摘要
本文利用美国监禁率急剧上升时期（约1986–2006年）近40个州地区检察官选举时间的差异，发现选举年份提高了州监狱人均收押量和判处刑期月数，其中收押量上升3%——在整个时期内新增约63,000人次监狱收押。这些效应集中于南部地区，在共和党县更为明显，并随着公众舆论趋于缓和而减弱，在该时代结束后基本消失。结果表明量刑结果会对选民偏好作出反应，这意味着理解监禁率上升背后的政治因素可能与理解政策本身同等重要。
Abstract
Exploiting variation in the timing of district attorney elections across nearly 40 states during the steepest rise in U.S. incarceration (roughly 1986–2006), this paper shows that election years increased per capita admissions and months sentenced to state prisons, with admissions rising 3 percent—approximately 63,000 additional prison admissions over the period. These effects were concentrated in the South, were stronger in Republican counties, and declined as public opinion softened, largely disappearing after the era ended. Results suggest that sentencing outcomes respond to voter preferences, implying that the politics underlying rising incarceration may be as important to understand as the policies themselves.