Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Nicolás Ajzenman、Patricio Dominguez、Lucas M. Novaes
中文摘要
选举结果能否塑造选民对过去的认知?选举结果能够提供信息线索,促使选民重新解读先前状况,从而改变问责所依赖的基准。我们通过犯罪认知来考察这一问题——犯罪是一个与任何候选人都相关的效价议题。我们比较了智利地方选举前后接受访问的受访者,涵盖右翼市长以微弱优势获胜与落败的市镇。在右翼微弱获胜后不久接受调查的个体更可能报告犯罪有所增加,尽管自我报告的受害经历保持不变。我们的研究结果表明,问责本身会内生于选举结果。
Abstract
Can electoral outcomes shape voters’ perceptions of the past? Election results can provide informational cues that prompt voters to reinterpret prior conditions, shifting the benchmarks on which accountability rests. We examine this through perceptions of crime, a valence issue relevant to any candidate. We compare respondents interviewed just before and after local elections in Chile, across municipalities where a right-wing mayor narrowly won versus lost. Individuals surveyed shortly after a narrow right-wing victory are more likely to report that crime has increased, even though self-reported victimization remains unchanged. Our findings suggest that accountability itself becomes endogenous to electoral results.