中文摘要
本文考察在受管制的电力体系中,自然灾害如何使政府平衡能源安全与能源转型的努力变得更为复杂。利用径流的随机变化作为自然实验,我们发现干旱会导致煤电装机容量的长期扩张。这一扩张体现在广延边际的调整上,尤其表现为新建燃煤电厂的投产。我们还发现,在电力交易与发电受到行政管制的条件下,这一投资反应主要由政府增强电力供应稳定性的努力所驱动,而非仅源于企业的逐利动机。研究结果表明,在电力市场尚不完善的发展中国家,针对气候相关供给冲击的适应性反应可能留下长期存在的化石燃料遗产。
Abstract
This paper examines how natural disasters complicate government efforts to balance energy security with the energy transition in regulated electricity systems. Using random variations in runoff as a natural experiment, we find that droughts lead to a long-term expansion of coal-fired power capacity. This expansion is reflected in extensive-margin adjustments, particularly through the commissioning of new coal-fired power plants. We also show that, under administrative regulation of electricity trading and generation, this investment response is driven primarily by government efforts to strengthen power supply stability rather than by firms’ profit-seeking incentives alone. Our findings highlight how adaptive responses to climate-related supply shocks can generate long-lasting fossil-fuel legacies in developing countries where electricity markets are not yet fully developed.