中文摘要
本文研究利用数字优惠券实施的消费刺激,此类优惠券在达到最低消费额的条件下提供限时补贴。通过分析中国的一项大规模项目,我们发现该项目产生了较大且异质的短期效应。消费反应在消费者与地区之间均存在差异,反映出需求侧与供给侧两方面因素。这种异质性决定了项目的归宿:高反应消费者往往光顾规模较大的商家,导致刺激收益的分配呈累退性。通过反事实分析,我们表明瞄准规则能够重塑刺激效应的规模与分布。瞄准反应最强烈的消费者可使总体刺激效应增加一倍以上,而将瞄准式发放与小企业直接支持相结合的混合式设计则能同时改善效率与公平。
Abstract
We study consumption stimulus using digital coupons, which provide time-limited subsidies contingent on minimum spending. Analyzing a large-scale program in China, we find that the program generates large and heterogeneous short-term effects. Consumption responses vary across both consumers and locations, reflecting both demand-side and supply-side factors. This heterogeneity shapes the incidence of the program: high-response consumers tend to patronize larger businesses, leading to a regressive allocation of stimulus benefits. Through counterfactual analysis, we show that targeting rules can reshape both the size and distribution of stimulus effects. Targeting the most responsive consumers can more than double the aggregate stimulus, while a hybrid design that combines targeted distribution with direct support to small businesses improves both efficiency and equity.