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活力都去哪儿了?1998–2013年中国制造业的生产率增长

Where has all the dynamism gone? Productivity growth in China’s manufacturing sector, 1998–2013
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Loren Brandt、Johannes Van Biesebroeck、Luhang Wang、Yifan Zhang

中文摘要

中国制造业一直是经济活力的重要来源。然而,2007年以后的分析受到实证研究关键数据来源——国家统计局(NBS)工业企业年度调查——所存在问题的制约。这些问题包括增加值和中间投入信息缺失,以及对数据高报的担忧。中国国家税务总局(STA)开展的企业年度调查为2007至2013年提供了可靠的企业层面数据替代来源。但由于该样本不具有代表性,且确切的抽样方案未知,这些数据无法直接用于对中国制造业进行推断。通过比较两项调查均能提供较为可靠信息的关键变量的联合分布,我们恢复了STA调查的抽样方案,并据此模拟出2007至2013年与早年NBS样本具有可比性的样本。我们的估计显示,基于收入的全要素生产率增长明显放缓,且这一放缓遍及所有行业、所有制类型和地区。其中,私营部门活力的丧失以及企业进入对总体生产率增长贡献的下降尤为突出。

Abstract

China’s manufacturing sector has been a key source of the economy’s dynamism. Analysis after 2007 however is hampered by problems in the key data source for empirical analysis, the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) annual survey of industrial firms. Issues include missing information on value added and intermediate inputs, and concerns of over-reporting. The annual survey of firms conducted by China’s State Taxation Administration (STA) provides a reliable, alternative source of firm-level data for the years 2007 to 2013. Since the sample is not representative and the precise sampling scheme is not known, the data cannot be used directly to draw inferences on China’s manufacturing sector. By comparing the joint distribution of key variables for which both surveys provide reasonably reliable information, we recover the sampling scheme of the STA survey and use it to simulate samples for 2007 to 2013 that are comparable to the NBS sample in earlier years. Our estimates reveal a marked slowdown in revenue-based total factor productivity growth that cuts across all industries, ownership types, and regions. The loss of dynamism in the private sector, and the reduced contribution of firm entry to aggregate productivity growth are especially prominent.
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