American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · Zheng Wang、Feicheng Wang、Zhuo Zhou
中文摘要
本文利用航班行程层面的全球航空交通数据, 提出一个新的工具变量来估计面对面互动对双边贸易的影响。通过利用由第三国中转能力所驱动的航空连通性外生变动, 我们发现航空连接的增加促进了贸易, 尤其是对复杂行业和新产品而言。线上互动似乎只能有限地替代面对面接触。这些发现证实了面对面交流在降低信息共享壁垒中的作用。我们的估计方法也为评估复杂交通网络的社会与经济影响提供了有用的工具。(JEL D83, F14, L93, R41)
Abstract
Using itinerary-level global air traffic data, this paper proposes a novel instrumental variable to estimate the effect of in-person interactions on bilateral trade. By exploiting exogenous variations in air connectivity that are driven by third-country connecting capacities, we show that increased air connections boost trade, especially for complex industries and new products. Online interactions appear to be a limited substitute for in-person contact. These findings confirm the role of in-person communications in reducing information-sharing barriers. Our estimation approach also provides a useful tool for evaluating the social and economic impacts of a complex transport network. (JEL D83, F14, L93, R41)