Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Vikram Pathania、Serguei Netessine
中文摘要
若干大型企业部署的设施——工厂、仓库、购物中心——直接和间接雇用了数千人。地方政府一直以各种财政激励吸引这些企业。但这些设施究竟带来了多少经济增长（如果有的话）？我们以亚马逊配送设施为案例研究这一问题。我们提供的证据表明，开设亚马逊配送设施对各县的经济结果具有正向影响。我们聚焦于2014—2017年间亚马逊开设设施的中等规模县，因为我们对这些县有良好的对照组。我们发现亚马逊在选址上存在选择性效应，并对该问题加以处理。我们首选的方法是Callaway–Sant'Anna双重差分结合匹配。在亚马逊进入之后，在我们首选的设定下，我们发现处理县的就业人口比提高了0.0087（在均值处+1.46%），贫困率下降了0.36个百分点（−2.69%），家庭收入中位数提高了1413美元（+2.33%）。我们提供证据论证，我们的发现很可能可以被解释为因果关系且具有合理性。
Abstract
ABSTRACT A number of large companies deploy facilities—factories, warehouses, shopping malls—that employ thousands of people directly and indirectly. Local governments have been enticing these companies with various financial incentives. But how much economic growth do these facilities promote, if any? We study this question using Amazon distribution facilities as the case in point. We show evidence of a positive effect of opening Amazon's distribution facilities on counties' economic outcomes. We focus on midsized counties in which Amazon opened facilities in the years 2014–2017 because we have good controls for these counties. We find a selection effect where Amazon locates its facilities, and we address this issue. Our preferred methodology is Callaway–Sant'Anna difference‐in‐differences combined with matching. After Amazon's entry, in our preferred specification, we find that the employment‐to‐population ratio in the treated county increased by 0.0087 (+1.46% at the mean), the poverty rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points (−2.69%), and the median household income increased by $1413 (+2.33%). We present evidence to argue that our findings can likely be interpreted as causal and plausible.