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水涨船高,部分利率随之上行:气候变化、自然灾害与贷款定价

The Rising Tide Lifts Some Interest Rates: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Loan Pricing
The Journal of Finance · 2026 · RICARDO CORREA、AI HE、CHRISTOPH HERPFER、UGUR LEL

中文摘要

银行在观察到与气候变化相关的自然灾害后,会调整贷款利差。我们通过识别向处于此类灾害风险之中但未直接受灾的借款人发放的贷款,分离出这一信息更新过程。此类借款人的贷款利差在一级市场和二级市场均急剧上升,而对于非气候相关的自然灾害,则未出现这种更新。证据表明,感知信用风险有所上升,但这仍无法完全解释利率的上升。综合来看,利差的上升主要可由显著性偏差解释:利差的上升是短暂的,且随媒体关注而被放大。这种显著性效应影响了依赖银行融资企业的财务决策。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Banks adjust loan spreads after observing natural disasters linked to climate change. We isolate this updating process by identifying loans to borrowers at risk of, but not directly affected by, such disasters. Loan spreads for these borrowers spike in both primary and secondary markets, while no such updating occurs for non–climate‐related disasters. Evidence suggests a heightened perceived credit risk, which nonetheless cannot fully explain the increase in rates. Taken altogether, increased spreads are explained primarily by salience bias, as they are short‐lived and amplified by media attention. This salience impacts financial decisions at bank‐dependent firms.
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