采矿诱发地震对心理健康的影响:来自荷兰Lifelines队列研究与生物样本库的证据

中文摘要

大量文献表明,暴露于自然灾害等重大不利事件会影响身心健康。然而,对于长期暴露于采矿诱发地震这类规模较小、反复发生的冲击所产生的健康后果,我们所知甚少。本文利用荷兰Lifelines队列研究与生物样本库以及荷兰皇家气象研究所的数据,考察天然气开采所引发的频繁地震对心理健康的影响——天然气曾是荷兰重要的经济收入来源。长期暴露以累积峰值地面加速度来衡量。我们采用个体层面固定效应模型来处理选择性暴露问题。研究发现,暴露会增加抑郁和焦虑症状。结果对选择性迁移以及更换暴露指标均保持稳健。研究结果支持对天然气开采的社会成本进行重新评估。

Abstract

A large body of literature demonstrates that exposure to major adverse events such as natural disasters affects physical and mental health. Less is known about health consequences of long-term exposure to smaller, recurring shocks such as mining-induced earthquakes. Leveraging data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study and Biobank and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, we examine mental health effects of frequent earthquakes generated by the extraction of natural gas, which was a major source of economic revenue for the Netherlands. Long-term exposure is captured by the accumulated peak ground acceleration. We employ individual-level fixed effects models to deal with selective exposure. We find that exposure increases depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results are robust to selective migration and to varying the exposure indicator. The results support a reassessment of the societal costs of the mining of natural gas.