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数字颠覆背景下的银行竞争:对金融普惠的启示

Bank Competition Amid Digital Disruption: Implications for Financial Inclusion
The Journal of Finance · 2026 · ERICA XUEWEI JIANG、GLORIA YANG YU、JINYUAN ZHANG

中文摘要

本文利用3G移动网络的交错推广,考察数字颠覆如何影响银行竞争。3G网络的扩张提高了技术娴熟家庭的手机银行采用率,并减少了分支机构网络——在人口年龄结构较年轻的县尤为明显。银行的策略出现分化:较少依赖分支机构的银行关闭分支并以价格竞争,而较多依赖分支机构的银行保留分支但提高了利差。一个结构模型显示,年轻消费者对数字服务感知的改善推动了这些变化,并降低了年长储蓄者的福利。反事实分析表明,补贴年长储蓄者的采用能够以成本有效的方式缩小这些差距,促进更平滑的数字转型。

Abstract

ABSTRACT We examine how digital disruption affects bank competition using the staggered rollout of 3G mobile networks. 3G expansion increased mobile banking adoption among tech‐savvy households, reducing branch networks—especially in younger counties. Banks' strategies diverged: Less branch‐reliant banks closed branches and competed on price, while more branch‐reliant banks maintained branches but raised spreads. A structural model shows that perceived digital service improvements among younger consumers drove these shifts, reducing welfare for older savers. Counterfactuals demonstrate that subsidizing adoption for older savers can cost‐effectively reduce these disparities, facilitating a smoother digital transition.
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