Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Xiaoguang Chen、Binlei Gong、Zhilong Qin、Xiaoli Wang
中文摘要
本文利用县级和农户层面的农业数据,估计了中国大规模高速铁路 (HSR) 扩张的影响。我们的估计结果表明,高铁扩张:(i) 促进了农业劳动力流出,并减少了通高铁农村地区的耕地,这一效应在欠发达地区尤为明显;(ii) 提高了农业全要素生产率 (TFP),有效抵消了投入减少对农业产出的负面影响;(iii) 显著提升了地方 GDP 和政府财政收入,为农业提供了财政支持,并为农业基础设施和乡村道路提供了关键投资;(iv) 便利了农民获得技术培训,并鼓励了新农业企业的进入;(v) 增加了农民的收入和利润,强化了其从事生产的经济激励,共同提高了农业 TFP。
Abstract
We estimate the impacts of China's extensive high-speed railroads (HSR) expansions using both county-level and household-level agricultural data. Our estimates indicate that HSR expansions: (i) facilitated the outflow of labor from agriculture and reduced cropland in connected rural areas, particularly in underdeveloped regions; (ii) increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), effectively offsetting the negative impacts on agricultural output from reduced inputs; (iii) significantly boosted local GDP and government revenue, providing financial support for agriculture and critical investments in agricultural infrastructure and rural roads; (iv) facilitated farmers' access to technical training and encouraged the entry of new agribusiness firms; and (v) increased farmers' revenues and profits, strengthening their economic incentives for production and collectively improving agricultural TFP.