Industrial policy in a new era: Government venture capital in the US–China trade war
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Y. Joy Chen、Robin Kaiji Gong、Jinlin Li
中文摘要
政府风险投资(VC)是中国产业政策框架的核心组成部分。本研究记录了地缘政治紧张局势下政府风险投资的一个新特征:在2018–2019年中美贸易战期间,政府风险投资基金持续投资于受美国关税针对的制造业,与此形成对照的是私人资本的整体撤出。这种持续投资对初创企业融资与创新具有重要意义。受关税冲击较大的初创企业 (1) 更有可能从政府风险投资处获得后续融资,尤其是当其创新业绩记录更强时;(2) 在其所在地区事前政府风险投资活跃度较高时,产出更多专利。总体而言,这些发现表明,政府风险投资作为一种新兴的产业政策工具,有助于支撑中国高科技产业在地缘政治风险面前的韧性。
Abstract
Government venture capital (VC) is a core component of China’s industrial policy framework. This study documents a novel feature of government VC under geopolitical tensions: During the 2018–2019 US–China trade war, government VC funds sustained their investments in manufacturing industries targeted by the U.S. tariffs, in contrast to an overall withdrawal of private capital. This persistence had important implications for startup financing and innovation. Startups heavily exposed to tariff shocks (1) were more likely to secure follow-on financing from government VC, especially if they had stronger innovation track records and (2) produced more patents if their localities had higher ex ante government VC activity. Collectively, these findings suggest that government VC, as an emerging instrument of industrial policy, helped underpin the resilience of China’s high-tech industries in the face of geopolitical risks.