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不同养老金计划体系下的资产定价与风险分担含义

Asset Pricing and Risk‐Sharing Implications of Alternative Pension Plan Systems
The Journal of Finance · 2026 · NUNO COIMBRA、FRANCISCO GOMES、ALEXANDER MICHAELIDES、JIALU SHEN

中文摘要

我们表明,将待遇确定型养老金基金纳入不完全市场资产定价模型,可提升其匹配历史股权溢价与无风险利率的能力,并具有重要的风险分担含义。我们记录了养老金基金规模与资产需求的重要性,以及一个源于基金收益波动的新风险渠道。我们运用校准后的模型研究转向以固定缴费型计划为主的经济体的含义。新稳态的特征是更高的无风险利率和更低的股权溢价。退休人员的消费波动性上升,而劳动者的消费波动性下降。

Abstract

ABSTRACT We show that incorporating defined benefit pension funds in an incomplete markets asset pricing model improves its ability to match the historical equity premium and riskless rate and has important risk‐sharing implications. We document the importance of the pension fund's size and asset demands, and a new risk channel arising from fluctuations in the fund's returns. We use our calibrated model to study the implications of a shift to an economy with defined contribution plans. The new steady state is characterized by a higher riskless rate and a lower equity premium. Consumption volatility increases for retirees but decreases for workers.
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