中文摘要
本文评估了气候变化对菲律宾的经济影响。横跨二十年的数据显示,气温升高会增加人口迁出,但暴露于酷热的地区向历史上有关联的目的地输出的移民反而更少。这一模式引出了如下问题:当人口流动受到约束时,气候变化会如何影响经济活动的空间配置。我采用一个定量空间均衡模型,其中气温上升和海平面上升会降低当地宜居性与生产率。基于2100年的气候预测,我估计总福利与总产出将分别下降15%和12%,高技能工人的损失更为突出。大规模海岸防护最多可抵消3个百分点的损害,而消除移民壁垒最多可使福利损失减少13个百分点。
Abstract
This paper evaluates the economic implications of climate change in the Philippines. Data spanning two decades reveal that warmer temperatures increase out-migration, yet locations exposed to intense heat send fewer migrants to historically connected destinations. This pattern raises the question of how climate change affects the spatial allocation of economic activity when mobility is constrained. I employ a quantitative spatial equilibrium model in which rising temperatures and sea-level rise depress local amenities and productivity. Taking climate projections for 2100, I estimate aggregate welfare and output to fall by 15% and 12% respectively, with more prominent losses for high-skilled workers. Large-scale coastal protection can offset damages by up to 3 percentage points, but removing migration barriers attenuates welfare losses by as much as 13 percentage points.