Allocation of foreign aid in emerging economies: Investment in new vs maintenance of old infrastructure
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Rolando A. Escobar-Posada、Goncalo Monteiro、Stephen J. Turnovsky
中文摘要
本文分析了新兴经济体在公共资源（包括国内税收收入和外国援助）于新公共资本投资与现有公共资本维护之间的配置所产生的增长与福利效应。我们表明，适度增加维护可通过提高资本效率和延长资本寿命来促进增长与福利，而过度维护则会挤出消费与生产性投资，并产生不利影响。外国援助通过缓解国内财政约束，使降低扭曲性税收成为可能，但其有效性取决于援助的构成及其与国内财政政策的相互作用。我们的研究强调了平衡配置的重要性。数值模拟表明，对于一个合理的校准，新投资与维护之间约 80 比 20 的分配比例是可取的，但该比例对公共资本的质量较为敏感。对于校准后的基准模型，捐赠方施加的共同融资要求对增长和福利具有相互冲突的影响，尽管这些影响对公共资本的生产率高度敏感，但对分配比例的敏感度较低。
Abstract
This paper analyzes the growth and welfare effects of allocating public resources — both domestic tax revenues and foreign aid — between investment in new public capital and the maintenance of existing public capital in emerging economies. We show that moderate increases in maintenance enhance growth and welfare by improving capital efficiency and longevity, while excessive maintenance crowds out consumption and productive investment and has adverse effects. Foreign aid, by easing domestic fiscal constraints, enables lower distortionary taxation, but its effectiveness depends on both its composition and interaction with domestic fiscal policies. Our study emphasizes the importance of a balanced allocation. Numerical simulations suggest that for a plausible calibration an approximate 80-20 split allocation between new investment and maintenance is desirable, but it is sensitive to the quality of the public capital. For the calibrated benchmark model donor-imposed co-financing requirements have conflicting effects on growth and welfare, although these are highly sensitive to the productivity of public capital, but less so to the allocation.