FDI spillovers in history: Interwar Japanese “Zaikabo” investment in China's cotton spinning industry
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Holger Görg、Toshihiro Okubo、Eric Strobl、Maximilian V. Ehrlich
中文摘要
我们基于1925年至1938年的工厂层面数据，估计日本在华棉纺织企业（即“在华纺”，Zaikabo）对中国本地棉纺织厂的生产率溢出效应。为刻画距离在促成此类溢出中的重要作用，我们对工厂进行了地理定位。我们的结果提供了明确证据，表明在华纺对本地中国工厂存在正向溢出，且这与生产技术向更多使用资本的方向升级相伴而行。溢出效应高度本地化，在以在华纺为中心、半径至多10公里的范围内最强，对上海的工厂尤为显著。利用有关日本附属企业劳动力构成的信息，我们发现了技能劳动力渠道的提示性证据：来自雇用了更高比例技能劳动力的在华纺的溢出往往更大。我们还发现一些证据与如下观点一致，即这些增益对初始生产率较高的中国工厂更大，这与吸收能力的作用相符。本文首次在历史情境中记录了FDI生产率溢出效应，并刻画了其发挥作用的渠道。
Abstract
We estimate productivity spillovers from Japanese cotton-spinning firms in China (known as Zaikabo) to local Chinese cotton-spinning mills based on plant-level data for 1925 to 1938. In order to capture the important role of distance in facilitating such spillovers we geo-localised the plants. Our results provide clear evidence for positive spillovers from Zaikabo to local Chinese mills, which go hand-in-hand with an upgrade in production technology towards greater use of capital. Spillovers are very localised, being strongest within a radius of up to 10 km around the Zaikabo and particularly strong for mills in Shanghai. Exploiting information on the workforce composition of the Japanese affiliates, we find suggestive evidence of a skilled-labour channel: spillovers tend to be larger from Zaikabo employing higher shares of skilled labour. We also find some evidence in line with the idea that these gains are larger for Chinese mills with higher initial productivity, consistent with a role for absorptive capacity. Our paper is the first to document FDI productivity spillovers in a historical context and to characterise the channels through which they operate.