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团聚还是分离?中国的迁移、教育可及性与代际流动

Together or apart? Migration, education access, and intergenerational mobility in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Jingxuan Du

中文摘要

本文研究基于户口的教育楔子与子女安排成本如何共同塑造中国的福利与代际教育流动。我构建了一个包含世代交叠结构的量化空间模型,其中家庭依次选择教育、迁移与子女安排,并利用人口普查和住户调查数据对模型进行估计。在统一的融资规则下,两项针对儿童的政策使共同迁移率的提高幅度相近,但在福利与流动性方面差异悬殊。补贴高成本目的地的共同迁移家庭,每单位政府财政收入所产生的福利是消除流动儿童教育可及性楔子的1.4倍,且这些收益集中于受惠者。消除教育可及性楔子则每单位财政收入带来超过四倍的流动性收益,且由此形成的人力资本在各代之间产生不断增长的福利收益。使所有流动人口平等享有公共服务获取渠道的更广泛改革具有最高的福利效率,但并不能提高流动性。

Abstract

This paper studies how hukou-based education wedges and child-arrangement costs jointly shape welfare and intergenerational educational mobility in China. I develop a quantitative spatial model with overlapping generations in which households sequentially choose education, migration, and child arrangement, and estimate it using census and household-survey data. Under a common financing rule, two child-targeted policies raise the co-migration rate to a similar extent but differ sharply in welfare and mobility. Subsidizing co-migrating families in high-cost destinations generates 1.4 times as much welfare per unit of government revenue as removing migrant children’s education-access wedges. These gains concentrate on recipients. Removing the education-access wedges delivers over four times the mobility gain per unit of revenue, and the resulting human capital generates growing welfare gains across generations. A broader reform that equalizes public-service access for all migrants is the most welfare-efficient but does not raise mobility.
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