变动断点的福利分析：来自家庭补助计划的证据
Welfare Analysis of Changing Notches: Evidence from Bolsa Família
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Katy Bergstrom", "affiliation": ["Tulane University"]}, {"name": "William B. Dodds", "affiliation": ["Tulane University"]}, {"name": "Juan Ríos", "affiliation": ["Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个框架，利用两个充分统计量——新缺口以下家庭数量的变化和旧缺口以下家庭数量的变化——来界定针对缺口进行任意大规模改革所产生的福利影响。我们的界限在广泛的一类模型中均成立，这凸显了一种利用简约式聚集证据进行福利分析的新方法，而无需对经济环境作出强假设。我们采用双重差分策略，针对反贫困项目 Bolsa Família 的一项改革估计了这两个统计量，发现该改革的公共资金边际价值（MVPF）介于 0.90–1.12 之间。（JEL D12, D91, H83, I32, I38, O12）
Abstract
We develop a framework to bound the welfare impacts of arbitrarily large reforms to notches using two sufficient statistics: the change in the number of households located below the new notch and the change in the number of households located below the old notch. Our bounds hold in a wide class of models, highlighting a new way to use reduced-form bunching evidence for welfare analysis without making strong assumptions on the economic environment. We estimate these two statistics using a difference-in-difference strategy for a reform to the antipoverty program Bolsa Família, finding that the reform’s MVPF is between 0.90–1.12. (JEL D12, D91, H83, I32, I38, O12)