中文摘要
我们研究针对教育机构的恐怖袭击如何通过儿童助养影响私人发展援助。在概念上，恐怖事件可能通过传递需求更大的信号而增加助养，也可能因受影响社区被视为效率较低的支持对象而减少助养。我们将国际计划（Plan International）2008—2018年期间覆盖50个国家、汇总至初级抽样单元（PSU）层面的儿童助养全球行政数据，与全球恐怖主义数据库中经地理编码的恐怖事件数据相结合。我们的核心设定聚焦于每个PSU 20公里范围内针对教育机构的袭击。我们采用适用于交错、非吸收性处理的异质性稳健双重差分方法估计因果效应。我们发现，针对教育机构的袭击使受助儿童比例下降约3个百分点，相对于均值下降4%。粗略测算表明，这相当于研究期间受影响社区损失约615,000美元的资金。由于助养具有地理指向性，这些损失落在特定社区身上，凸显了为地方发展资金提供缓冲以应对安全冲击的必要性。
Abstract
We study how terrorist attacks targeting educational institutions affect private development aid through child sponsorship. Conceptually, terrorist events may increase sponsorship by signaling greater need or reduce it if affected communities are seen as less effective destinations to support. We combine global administrative data from Plan International on child sponsorship across 50 countries over the 2008-2018 period, aggregated at the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) level, with geocoded terrorism events from the Global Terrorism Database. Our core specification focuses on attacks against educational institutions within 20 km of each PSU. We estimate the causal effect using a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences approach suited to staggered, non-absorbing treatments. We find that attacks on educational institutions reduce the share of sponsored children by about 3 percentage points, a 4 percent decline relative to the mean. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest this corresponds to funding losses of approximately US$615,000 across affected communities over the study period. Since sponsorship is geographically targeted, these losses fall on the specific communities, underscoring the need to buffer local development funding against security shocks.