Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Aya Aboulhosn、Cevat Giray Aksoy、Berkay Özcan
中文摘要
关于人口老龄化的研究与政策辩论通常假定，移民仅通过移民自身的生育及其对总人口规模的影响而发挥作用，而忽略了对本地居民生育的影响。我们在2011年后叙利亚难民大规模涌入土耳其的背景下研究这一边际。利用工具变量策略，我们提供的证据表明，本地对难民暴露程度的提高会增加本地居民的生育。基于人口与健康调查的完整生育史，我们发现这一反应主要通过更早进入母亲角色(即更早生育)来实现，并集中于较年轻的女性。该结果在三个独立数据集中均成立，其中包括行政出生登记数据，并在女性所陈述的理想子女数量中得到印证。在考察潜在机制时，我们发现证据与家庭经济保障的改善最为一致，而未发现支持通过住房成本或付费托育使用发挥作用的渠道的证据。
Abstract
Research and policy debates on population ageing typically assume that immigration matters only through immigrants’ own fertility and its impact on total population size, ignoring effects on natives’ fertility. We study this margin in the context of the large inflow of Syrian refugees into Türkiye after 2011. Using an instrumental-variables strategy, we provide evidence that greater local exposure to refugees increases native fertility. Drawing on complete birth histories from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we find that the response operates primarily through earlier entry into motherhood and is concentrated among younger women. The result holds across three independent datasets, including administrative birth registers, and is mirrored in women’s stated ideal number of children. Examining potential mechanisms, we find the evidence most consistent with improved household economic security and find no support for channels operating through housing costs or the use of paid childcare.