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监督与交付:来自巴西辍学率的证据

Monitoring and delivering: Evidence from dropout rates in Brazil
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Bruno Hudson Cardoso Komel

中文摘要

本文提供证据表明,审计可以成为改善公共服务的有效工具,但这取决于制度和部门条件。利用巴西市政资金的随机审计,我表明审计改善了公立学校学生的结果,但在改善其他公共服务供给方面效果不那么显著。运用双重差分策略,我给出因果证据表明,审计使市政小学和初中的辍学率下降0.41个百分点(17%),且这一效应持续了八年以上。这些估计约相当于“家庭补助金”(Bolsa Família)计划实施初期所带来辍学率下降的三分之一,该有条件现金转移支付计划部分旨在减少学生辍学。审计在被查出高腐败水平、且居民严重依赖有条件现金转移支付的市政中最为有效。

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that audits can be an effective instrument for improving public services, depending on institutional and sectoral conditions. Leveraging randomized audits of municipal funds in Brazil, I show that audits led to better outcomes for public school students, but were not as effective in improving the provision of other public services. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I show causal evidence that the audits led to a decrease in dropout rates in municipal elementary and middle schools by 0.41 percentage points (17%), and that this effect persisted for more than eight years. These estimates correspond to approximately one-third of the decrease in dropout rates resulting from the early years of Bolsa Família, a conditional cash transfer program partially designed to minimize student abandonment. The audits were most effective in municipalities where high levels of corruption were uncovered, and whose residents relied heavily on conditional cash transfers.
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