The effect of disaster relief on climate adaptation: Evidence from floods in Pakistan
中文摘要
极端天气事件预计将随气候变化而增多。政府救济项目旨在缓解负面后果,但道德风险模型表明,它们也会减少适应行为,例如从灾害多发地区迁出。我们使用双重差分法研究2010年巴基斯坦洪水之后现金救济对迁移的长期影响。结合调查数据与人口数据,我们发现现金转移具有两种相互抵消的效应。正如预期,现金转移通过道德风险效应以及促进就地适应而减少迁移;但同时,它们也通过提供流动性而增加迁移。在实践中,这些效应在受洪灾区相互抵消。
Abstract
Extreme weather events are expected to increase with climate change. Government relief programs are designed to ameliorate the negative consequences, but moral hazard models suggest they also reduce adaptation, such as migrating from disaster-prone areas. Using difference-in-differences, we study the long-term effects of cash relief on migration after the 2010 Pakistan floods. Combining survey and population data, we show that cash transfers have two countervailing effects. As expected, they reduce migration through a moral hazard effect and by facilitating in-situ adaptation. However, they also increase migration by providing liquidity. In practice, these effects cancel each other out in flooded areas.