中文摘要
公路基础设施被广泛视为经济发展的驱动力，但它能否同样有助于增强灾害韧性？本研究以印度为背景，通过考察双重且交错处理——国道建设（黄金四边形公路以及南北、东西公路）与极端洪水暴露——的产出效应，探讨这一韧性问题。本研究采用生产理论框架，聚焦于印度非正规制造业——全球规模最大、且不享有任何正式安全网的非正规制造业。研究将来自达特茅斯洪水观测站的地理空间匹配、交错洪水暴露数据，与印度国家公路管理局的分阶段公路建设时间表以及重复截面工厂层面调查数据（1990—2016年）相结合。利用洪水暴露时点与道路建设时点上的准随机变异，本研究实施堆叠双重差分设计，将处理组地区与未来受处理地区进行匹配。结果显示，洪水显著降低总产出与增加值，而通往已完工公路路段的通达性则通过提高产出和减少投入支出，几乎抵消了平均8%的洪水相关产出损失。对于拥有运输资产的工厂，这些效应被放大，凸显了内部物流与外部基础设施之间的互补性。不在公路沿线的工厂只有在拥有运输资产时才表现出类似的韧性。按市场导向进行的异质性分析表明，韧性收益在不可贸易行业中更高，其机制在于本地市场稳定。这些发现揭示，道路不仅是发展的引擎，也对灾害韧性至关重要。设计兼具发展与韧性双重功能的基础设施，对于构建气候智慧型且有韧性的经济至关重要。
Abstract
Road infrastructure is widely recognized as a driver of economic development, but can it also aid in disaster resilience? This study addresses the resilience question in the Indian context by examining the output effects of dual and staggered treatments: national highway construction – the Golden Quadrilateral, and the North-South and East-West highways – and extreme flood exposure. Employing a production-theoretic framework, this study focuses on India’s informal manufacturing, the largest in the world without any formal safety nets. It combines geospatially matched, staggered flood exposure data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory with phased highway rollout timelines from the National Highways Authority of India and repeated cross-section plant-level survey data (1990–2016). Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of flood exposure and road construction, a stacked difference-in-differences design is implemented, matching treated districts to future-treated counterparts. Results show that floods significantly reduce gross output and value added, while access to completed highway segments nearly offsets the average 8 percent flood-related output loss through higher output and reduced input expenditures. These effects are magnified for plants that own transport assets, highlighting a complementarity between internal logistics and external infrastructure. Off-highway plants exhibit similar resilience only when they possess transport assets. Heterogeneity analysis by market orientation reveals that resilience benefits are higher among non-tradable industries through local market stabilization. These findings reveal that roads are not only engines of development but also critical to disaster resilience. Designing infrastructure with dual function— development and resilience —is essential for building a climate-smart and resilient economy.