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挑选赢家:中国的地方土地配置与自下而上的产业政策

Picking winners: Local land allocation and bottom-up industrial policy in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Wenjia Tian、Wang Zhi、Qinghua Zhang

中文摘要

本研究通过土地配置的视角考察中国地方政府的产业偏好。我们分析 2007 年至 2019 年的工业用地交易,这一时期既伴随产业政策的扩张,也伴随土地市场竞争的加剧。采用比较县边界附近土地交易的边界断点设计,我们将地方政府偏好与企业需求分离。我们发现系统性的产业偏袒:地方对与其既有专业化方向一致的产业给予更深的降价优惠。这种偏袒随时间持续存在,在未实现集聚潜力较大的产业中更为明显,在市场制度较完善的地区也更强。我们进一步表明,地方政府只有在上级产业政策与其自身专业化方向一致时才遵从。综合来看,这些发现指向一个自下而上的过程:地方政府利用土地配置吸引企业,通过集聚溢出强化本地产业优势。

Abstract

This study examines the industrial preferences of local governments in China through the lens of land allocation. We analyze industrial land transactions from 2007 to 2019, a period marked by both expanding industrial policy and intensifying land market competition. Using a border discontinuity design that compares land transactions near county borders, we separate local government preferences from firm demand. We find systematic industrial favoritism: localities offer deeper price discounts to industries aligned with their existing specialization. This favoritism persists over time, is more pronounced in industries with substantial unrealized agglomeration potential, and is stronger in regions with well-developed market institutions. We further show that local governments comply with upper-level industrial policy only when it aligns with their own specialization. Together, these findings point to a bottom-up process in which local governments use land allocation to attract firms that reinforce local industrial strengths through agglomeration spillovers.
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