Journal of Political Economy · 2020 · Andrew Glover、Jonathan Heathcote、Dirk Krueger、José-V́ıctor Ŕıos-Rull
中文摘要
本文构建了一个随机交叠世代一般均衡模型, 其中家庭面临同时影响工资与资产价格的总量冲击。我们利用该模型的校准版本量化严重衰退的福利成本在不同家庭年龄组之间的分布。模型预测, 当均衡状态下资产价格的跌幅相对于工资跌幅较大时——正如数据中所观察到的那样——年轻世代的境况优于年老世代。资产价格下跌会损害依赖出售资产为消费融资的老人的利益, 却使能够以被压低的价格购买资产的年轻人受益。在我们偏好的校准中, 资产价格的跌幅是工资跌幅的两倍以上, 与美国经济在大衰退中的经历一致。模型中的衰退对 20-29 岁年龄组的家庭而言在福利上大致是中性的, 但会使 70 岁及以上的家庭承受相当于终身消费约 10% 的较大福利损失。
Abstract
In this paper we construct a stochastic overlapping-generations general equilibrium model in which households are subject to aggregate shocks that affect both wages and asset prices.We use a calibrated version of the model to quantify how the welfare costs of severe recessions are distributed across different household age groups.The model predicts that younger cohorts fare better than older cohorts when the equilibrium decline in asset prices is large relative to the decline in wages, as observed in the data.Asset price declines hurt the old, who rely on asset sales to finance consumption, but benefit the young, who purchase assets at depressed prices.In our preferred calibration, asset prices decline more than twice as much as wages, consistent with the experience of the US economy in the Great Recession.A model recession is approximately welfare-neutral for households in the 20-29 age group, but translates into a large welfare loss of around 10% of lifetime consumption for households aged 70 and over.