针对中等收入移民的税收激励：来自荷兰的证据
Tax Incentives for Migrants with Mid-level Earnings: Evidence from the Netherlands†
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Lisa Marie Timm", "affiliation": ["Tinbergen Institute", "University of Amsterdam"]}, {"name": "Massimo Giuliodori", "affiliation": ["Tinbergen Institute", "University of Amsterdam"]}, {"name": "Paul J. Müller", "affiliation": ["Tinbergen Institute", "Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam"]}]
中文摘要
我们考察所得税如何影响国际流动和工资。我们研究了荷兰一项面向移民的优惠税收方案，该方案于2012年引入了享受资格所需的收入门槛。相较于其他国家的类似方案，该门槛较低，因而使中等收入移民也具备申请资格。我们发现，在收入门槛略高处，移民人数增加一倍以上，而门槛以下的移民人数保持不变。这些效应似乎主要由新增移民所驱动，而工资谈判方面的反应有限。我们估计的移民弹性介于1.6至2.7之间，略高于大多数关于高收入移民研究所发现的数值。（JEL H24, H31, J15, J31, J82）
Abstract
We examine how income taxes affect international mobility and wages. We study a Dutch preferential tax scheme for migrants, which introduced an income threshold for eligibility in 2012. The threshold is low relative to similar schemes in other countries, thereby offering eligibility to migrants with mid-level earnings. We find migration more than doubles closely above the income threshold, while migration below the threshold remains unchanged. These effects appear to be driven by additional migration, while wage bargaining responses are limited. We estimate a migration elasticity ranging from 1.6 to 2.7, somewhat higher than most studies on high-income migrants have found. (JEL H24, H31, J15, J31, J82)