Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan†
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2025 · Andrew Beath、Fotini Christia、Рубен Ениколопов
中文摘要
我们利用2007年至2011年间开展的一项随机对照试验，识别阿富汗最大的地方治理与发展项目对叛乱强度的影响。我们发现，该项目在该国内陆地区减少了暴力、改善了经济结果，并提高了对政府的支持；但在靠近巴基斯坦边境、外国叛乱分子数量更多的村庄，该项目反而增加了暴力。结果表明，发展项目可以有效压制由当地驱动的叛乱，但在叛乱分子不依赖当地民众支持的地区，可能会适得其反。(JEL C93, D74, F35, O15, O17, O18)
Abstract
We exploit a randomized controlled trial conducted between 2007 and 2011 to identify the effect of Afghanistan's largest local governance and development program on the strength of the insurgency. We find that the program reduced violence, improved economic outcomes, and increased government support in interior regions of the country, but increased violence in villages close to the Pakistani border, where foreign insurgents were more numerous. The results suggest that development programs can be effective in suppressing locally driven insurgencies, but may be counterproductive where insurgents are not reliant on the local population for support. (JEL C93, D74, F35, O15, O17, O18)