Adaptation to Environmental Change: Agriculture and the Unexpected Incidence of the Acid Rain Program
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2022 · Nicholas Sanders、Alan Barreca
中文摘要
酸雨计划（ARP）减少了美国发电厂的二氧化硫（SO2）排放，带来了可观的收益。我们表明，这同时降低了环境硫酸盐水平，进而通过减少土壤硫降低了农业生产率。利用发电厂层面的 SO2 排放数据和大气输送模型，我们估计了空气中硫酸盐水平与玉米和大豆单产之间的关系。我们估计这两种作物的收入损失约为每年 10 亿至 15 亿美元，并伴随土地价值的下降。对弥补损失硫所需成本的粗略估算表明，生产者的反应有限且并非最优。（JEL Q15, Q24, Q53, Q58）
Abstract
The Acid Rain Program (ARP) cut sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from power plants in the United States, with considerable benefits. We show this also reduced ambient sulfate levels, which lowered agriculture productivity through decreased soil sulfur. Using plant-level SO2 emissions and an atmospheric transport model, we estimate the relationship between airborne sulfate levels and yields for corn and soybeans. We estimate crop revenue losses for these two crops at around $1–$1.5 billion per year, with accompanying decreases in land value. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the costs to replace lost sulfur suggest producer responses were limited and suboptimal. (JEL Q15, Q24, Q53, Q58)