American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2022 · Hans R. A. Koster、Edward W. Pinchbeck
中文摘要
尽管跨期选择几乎无处不在,但关于个人以何种比率在当期与未来的成本和收益之间进行权衡,学界尚缺乏共识。我们利用英格兰住房交易的大量数据以及财产税的时空差异来估计贴现率,从而为这一争论作出贡献。我们的发现意味着,扣除增长后的名义贴现率的长期平均值介于3%与4%之间。该数值与现行市场利率高度接近,因此几乎没有理由认为,在这一利害重大的情境中,家庭会因实质性低估极长期的资金流而出现决策优化失误。(JEL D15, H71, R31)
Abstract
Despite the near ubiquity of intertemporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from extensive data on housing transactions and spatiotemporal variation in property taxes in England. Our findings imply long-term average net of growth nominal discount rates that are between 3 and 4 percent. The close correspondence to prevailing market interest rates gives little reason to suggest that households misoptimize by materially undervaluing very long-term financial flows in this high-stakes context. (JEL D15, H71, R31)