American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2022 · Mikko Silliman、Hanna Virtanen
中文摘要
我们利用芬兰集中统一招生流程所形成的断点回归设计，研究职业教育与普通中等教育的劳动力市场回报。进入职业教育轨道会提高初始年收入，且这一收益至少持续到三十五岁左右，折现现值的计算表明，生命周期回报在直至退休的整个阶段转为负值的可能性不大。此外，进入职业教育轨道并不会提高从事面临自动化或离岸外包替代风险工作的可能性。与比较优势的预测一致，我们观察到，对明确表示偏好职业教育的个体，其回报更大。(JEL D15, I21, I26, J24, J31, O33)
Abstract
We study labor market returns to vocational versus general secondary education using a regression discontinuity design created by the centralized admissions process in Finland. Admission to the vocational track increases initial annual income, and this benefit persists at least through the mid-thirties, and present discount value calculations suggest that it is unlikely that life cycle returns will turn negative through retirement. Moreover, admission to the vocational track does not increase the likelihood of working in jobs at risk of replacement by automation or offshoring. Consistent with comparative advantage, we observe larger returns for people who express a preference for vocational education. (JEL D15, I21, I26, J24, J31, O33)